ETHOS Issue 07
January 2010
Last updated 30 July 2026
ETHOS Issue 07, January 2010
Scenario planning, risk management and horizon scanning — foresight tools in preparing for governance in an ever more complex and turbulent environment. How else can we think about the future? Featuring Jocelyne Bourgon, Gary Klein, Peter Ho, Peter Schwartz and Ang Hak Seng.
Editorial
by Alvin Pang
The future remains humanity's most enduring dilemma. The survival and success — or failure and decline — of ventures, organizations, and nations have always depended on how present actions might be expected to play out down the road, it is for this reason that those who govern or lead are tasked with the responsibility for foresight.
Serving Beyond the Predictable
by Jocelyne Bourgon
The public sector needs a unifying framework to reconcile the efficiency gains of the past with the participative, explorative and adaptive strategies needed to address tomorrow’s complex challenges, argues Jocelyne Bourgon, President of Public Governance International and President Emeritus of the Canada School of Public Service.
Thinking through Complexity, Managing for Uncertainty
by Lam Chuan Leong
Our thinking is less rational than we’d like to believe, but can we learn to outsmart our own cognitive biases?
Opinion: Looking for Trouble
by Gary Klein
It is not just that weak signals are hard to detect and understand. They are also hard to communicate and difficult to take seriously, warns naturalistic decision making guru Gary Klein.
Opinion: The Future of Futures
by Devadas Krishnadas
The next stage in the evolution of futures thinking could come from coordination across multiple domains, with a careful mix of capabilities.
Opinion: Mainstreaming the Praxis of Foresight: The UK Example
by Calvin Chong and Jeremy Tan
The UK Government’s approach to futures thinking emphasises communication, engagement and broad application.
Enterprise Risk Management: Strengthening Singapore’s Competitive Advantage
by Ang Hak Seng
ERM could serve as a shared platform for understanding complexity and assessing trade-offs at the whole-of-government level.
Rethinking Recovery: Possible Discontinuities and Domestic Implications
by Godwin Tang and Valerie Yuen
Analysts from the Strategic Policy Office consider how the global economy might evolve in the next decade.
Thinking About the Future: What the Public Service Can Do
by Peter Ho
How can the Public Service overcome cognitive and institutional hindrances to anticipating strategic surprises? In the following excerpt from his 2009 Strategic Perspectives Conference keynote address, Head of Civil Service Peter Ho charts the way forward.
Singapore: The Apple of Nations—A Conversation with Peter Schwartz
ETHOS roundtable with Peter Schwartz, Quah Ley Hoon and Kwek Mean Luck
The ETHOS Roundtable brings together thought leaders and practitioners to discuss key issues of interest to the public service. In this session, renowned futurist and Global Business Network cofounder Peter Schwartz discusses Singapore’s prospects as a young city-state in a future where talent and innovation will determine success.>
Opinion: In Search of the New Public Leader
by Claudio Fernández-Aráoz
What can a Portuguese prince from the Age of Exploration teach us about the search for leadership in an Age of Uncertainty?
Phases of Singapore’s Demographic Development Post-World War II
by Koh Eng Chuan
An emerging phase of demographic development brings new challenges for Singapore.
Sustainable Development: Challenges and Opportunities
by Tan Yong Soon
Singapore should continue to invest in sustainable development to ensure dynamic growth and a liveable environment for the future, argues the Permanent Secretary for the Environment and Water Resources.
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