AI, Technology & Singapore: Preparing for the Future

Introduction

The rapid adoption of generative AI (GenAI) applications could mark a new and unprecedented inflection point in technological advancement and impact. The factors that drove the rise of the digital age have intensified: growth and access to compute power; rapid innovation amplified by global connectivity; the convergence of technologies, and a democratisation of access and adoption due to falling costs, increased connectivity and cloud computing. Governments are responding strongly to this new opportunity to reap strategic and economic advantage with ambitious national AI plans and even passing legislation to control access to technology. But it is unclear if these approaches can fully safeguard against real threats of AI-accelerated job displacement, heightened inequality, or an increasingly untrustworthy information ecosystem. With global powers exerting influence on technology supply chains, including on components critical to AI-powered innovation such as advanced chip manufacturing and supply, small states like Singapore stand particularly vulnerable in this new wave of technological change. This article dives deeper into three driving forces of tech-enabled disruption, with pervasive AI as an accelerant: economic transformation, info ecosystem complexity, and Great-Power competition. We then lay out three scenarios of a future Singapore where these driving forces have played out, posing initial questions about what appropriate policy responses might be if these were to be realised.

Small states like Singapore stand particularly vulnerable in this new wave of technological change

Driving Force 1: Jobs and the Economy, Transformed

New business models, changing worker aspirations and growing connectivity across information, capital and people flows have reshaped the economy and the nature of work. Some of these changes happened slowly; others were accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, as remote work became an overnight norm. The pandemic rendered entire sectors unviable. Unlike previous major disruptions such as the Asian Financial Crisis, the dotcom bust and the Global Financial Crisis, unemployment occurred across sectors, prompting governments to offer broad-based relief measures, including support for the self-employed. That the economic downturn sparked by the pandemic was amplified by AI-related disruptions surprised many. Big tech companies announced layoffs and hiring pauses in moves directly attributed to AI. Enterprise solution providers like Microsoft and Salesforce started pushing out AI-driven productivity solutions to reduce manpower needs at workplaces.

Experts predict that upcoming waves of displacement will be felt more deeply in advanced economies compared to emerging markets; white-collar work is more at risk than manual labour, and effects will be felt across sectors.

Recognising the harmful impacts of swift job displacement, Bill Gates once advocated taxing robot-using companies to slow automation and to finance human-centric jobs.

Singapore has not been immune to such dynamics. While technology-driven displacement is not new, its upcoming speed and scale could render our safety nets and policies no longer fit for purpose, outpacing our current provisions for upskilling, job matching and social support. New vulnerable groups could emerge (e.g., high-income white-collar workers). Disruptions would affect jobs across sectors, complicating attempts to target job and skill interventions.

Driving Force 2: A More Complex Information Ecosystem

Fake news at scale has had far-reaching implications. Even as states struggle to hold media platforms accountable to standards and rules, the risk of GenAI supercharging customised mis/disinformation looms large. In cybersecurity, malign actors may use GenAI to mount security attacks with increased sophistication at scale. New forms of crime—AI-assisted deepfake scams, extortion schemes, identity theft and harassment—are already emerging.

We may soon operate in an information ecosystem where most information is false or contains falsehood. Bad actors in this ecosystem can operate at scale, leading to a significant loss of trust in transacting online. What do we need to do to ensure timely and accurate dissemination of important information? What new harms may emerge from GenAI and how should we protect people from them?

Driving Force 3: Superpowers in Motion

In the past decade, countries at the forefront of technological development or those controlling critical supply chains have been exerting greater international influence and leverage, accelerating economic competition and widening inequality between states. International cooperation has become ever more vital on many levels, from standards-setting to cybersecurity and regulating emerging technologies that often transcend national borders. At the same time, the digital domain remains a battlefield, from information and psychological warfare to state-sponsored hacking: now augmented by AI.

This is particularly worrying for Singapore as a small player. The geopolitical playing field in the digital domain often maps onto global military might, yet players such as the Lazarus Group of hackers show that there is power in pure digital sophistication. Non-state actors that dominate the digital realm add complexity as they are less bound to international laws and norms.

With security concerns at the core, global powers have strongly exerted economic influence on each other in the technology domain. The US effort to contain China’s growth will continue, as international moves to decouple supply chains accelerates. The world recognises the risk of concentrating advanced chip manufacturing in Taiwan’s TSMC; the US CHIPS Act and other moves to contain China have been met without much international protest, with some US allies like Japan and the Netherlands announcing their own export controls. Singapore may have to compromise on its geopolitical wiggle room to maintain access to technology and capabilities.

Three Scenarios for Singapore Tomorrow

The following three future scenarios illustrate the interplay of these driving forces and their inherent uncertainties as they could unfold in Singapore. They are meant to surface policy implications and questions that are less discussed, particularly in the social domain.

Our current approaches to unemployment, income security, and social support may not be resilient against mass, protracted job displacement. A broad, educated middle, made newly vulnerable, could present unique challenges. The ongoing technology war could impact our access to capabilities, markets, and even present social implications in our multicultural context.

We hope these scenarios will prompt deeper discussion of the underlying driving forces at work, in order to better prepare for rapid tech-driven disruptions to our lives.

SCENARIO 1

People Interrupted

2024 is the year things really start to change. One by one, states embark on ambitious AI strategies, Singapore among them. But the world moves faster than these strategies anticipate.
Internationally, Singapore is seen as a beacon of AI ambition.

By 2025, knowledge workers across domains have been significantly displaced due to AI augmentation. Professionals from lawyers and brokers to management consultants face pay-cuts or layoffs. “Job redesign” becomes shorthand for being paid less to do less because of GenAI. Parents move their children to cheaper preschools, and new homeowners appeal for mortgage relief. Lower middle-income groups mock the newly displaced as complaining about “first world problems”. Consumer spending plummets.
A new vulnerable group emerges: upper middle-class professionals
“Job redesign” means being paid less to do less

The Treasury finds it difficult to scope relief because employers are not fully transparent about job downsizing, and practices across the private sector are uneven. In the creative industry, well-established players become even more sought after while average creative workers compete with free GenAI output. Creatives regret never organising, like the American Writers Guild did in 2023. Some suggest providing universal support, but the system is internally conflicted about this move.
New job “winners” emerge, often with no skills to do with AI; winner-takes-all dynamics play out across industries

Skills development agencies ramp up upskilling opportunities, introducing more subsidies and facilitating job-matching. But those that can afford to upskill find it difficult to enrol in the limited courses available, and many courses cannot keep up with the breakneck speed of AI innovation. Skills in new growth areas like AI, cybersecurity and data science are so specialised and require such deep knowledge and rapid upskilling that the majority cannot keep up.
Reskilling becomes more niche, but also too slow.

Some groups thrive. Employers value people who can understand and manipulate AI tools while managing human stakeholders. Surprisingly such people include graduates from all fields: STEM disciplines, the humanities, communications and the liberal arts. Educators attribute it to critical thinking, inter-personal skills, grit and creativity. The Education ministry embarks on a transformation effort. Independent schools with motivated teachers capitalise on GenAI tools to improve teaching and significantly enhance productivity. Healthcare experiences a boom in innovation, as do cyber-defence capabilities.
Many thrive: innovators improving productivity in typically labour scarce sectors such as healthcare, critical thinkers and relationship-builders, are among the winners.

But the transformations in economy, skills and jobs come too slow for some. Many go without steady employment for months, even years. This group, with lofty aspirations and degrees, organise themselves politically; the opposition sees membership growth. Many of those displaced agitate for Universal Basic Income and Unemployment Insurance. Those with family abroad leave Singapore for good. Many struggle with competing caregiving demands, with both aged parents and young children. New forms of exploitation targeting the newly vulnerable emerge.
People are exhausted from protracted financial precarity. Demands for new kinds of employment support emerge: unemployment insurance, universal basic income.

Civil service and political leadership are divided: no policy solutions, however improved, manage to address the aspirational needs of the broad middle. Government is increasingly criticised as being out of touch, especially as the Public Service remains one of the few job-secure sectors. Trust in government hits an all-time low.
Trust in government falls, and there is growing disdain for public servants and political leadership.

POLICY QUESTIONS

1. In the event of displacements or “job down-sizing,” how might employers be incentivised to cushion the negative impact on employees?

2. Are our social safety nets resilient against prolonged job displacement, or mass job-downsizing, of white-collar workers?

3. What traits and skills will help people thrive in such a future? How do we create the conditions for these traits to flourish among Singaporeans?

4. As public servants continue to enjoy job security, how do we maintain the legitimacy of the public service if the general public faces a precarious employment outlook?

SCENARIO 2

Zero Trust³

The world watches, numb, as Donald Trump steps to the podium to deliver his acceptance speech. “Truth is stranger than fiction, especially when it comes to US politics”. In 2024, the internet has become so untrustworthy that people cannot real from fake. Immersed in extreme online discourse, Singaporeans tolerate growing nationalist and racist rhetoric in the public sphere.
Far right rhetoric infects democracies worldwide; Singapore not immune.

Meta and X, under intense public scrutiny, clamp down hard on malicious actors, fake news and foreign interference in the lead up to the US elections. But pundits point to smaller platforms like Telegram, TruthSocial and Parler for content stoking divides in the US.
Tech giants play ball, but small players don’t.

In Singapore, existing policy levers prove ineffectual as sophisticated falsehoods are created rapidly and at scale. States struggle to reestablish institutional trust while protecting information and privacy. Some consider only allowing accredited institutions to operate on protected channels; others suggest extending accreditation requirements to any online user through verifiable, biometric identification.
Regulators worldwide are sluggish to react, divided on approach to tackling an increasingly malicious info space.

In early 2025, a high-profile tragedy strikes Singapore. A man receives a phone call from his young daughter crying in pain, accompanied by photos of her abuse. Her abductors want money, she says. He speeds home in a panic, and as he pulls into the carpark, he drives into his daughter, killing her instantly. It was a deepfake scam.
Domestic pressure causes Singapore to react quickly, but the people and private sectors present a solution first. This has pros and cons.

Singapore moves quickly. High trust and early investments into public education have mitigated many harms other countries seem to be experiencing.

Successes in the development of deepfake detection tools offer optimism, and a digitally literate society sees most Singaporeans transacting online despite the risks. A spate of malfunctioning last-mile service delivery bots and near-fatal accidents involving allegedly hacked Teslas have not dampened a collective desire to make the “digireal” safer.

Academics and former tech moguls moot a walled garden internet for online living called IGW, or InternetGoWhere. Only accredited players in news, finance, e-commerce, social media and public services are allowed into IGW, guaranteeing authentic information, legitimate transactions, and safe online environments. Singaporeans, used to the conveniences of transacting online, take to IGW. Besides, those who want to take the risk can always override IGW, at their own peril. By 2027, every smartphone sold in Singapore comes pre-set as an IGW device.

Yet, scams operate with greater frequency and sophistication. A bizarre trend of “ghouling” scams emerge; they threaten to remove all digital traces of deceased loved ones as a form of blackmail. Some look to turn threat into opportunity with lucrative scam insurance schemes. In a panic caused by a convincing online report, thousands of depositors withdraw their money from a major bank for fear of a new scam, and MAS tries to contain the ripple effects of the bank run.
Even in walled gardens, harms can perpetuate, and human folly can still occur with devastating impacts.

POLICY QUESTIONS

1. How can we guard GenAI against online harms in an environment where most things are false, or where accuracy of information is very difficult to discern?

2. How can government continue to disseminate important information to citizens in ways that are secure and trusted?

SCENARIO 3

Tribal World

In 2024, global chipmaking players support US efforts to contain China’s technological growth. However, Chinese EVs and airplanes show growing potential, boosting confidence in Chinese tech. Singapore capitalises on the precarity of people flows early. Special AI visas for AI businesses and scientists facilitate a boom in a burgeoning AI sector. Pundits tout the move as an attempt at building a Singapore “silicon shield”. Local AI hub Kampong AI incubates start-ups that pique international interest.
Global powers agitate for bifurcation, but it takes time. Singapore capitalises on this and wins early.

But as the years go by, talent flows become uncertain as the US and Chinese ecosystems grow further apart. Established pioneers in Singapore’s AI space withdraw, hedging their bets on access to bigger markets or are poached by big MNCs. The high-profile "disappearance" of a Singapore-based foreign CEO of an AI company while on holiday sends a chilling effect across the industry.
As inevitable bifurcation catches up, Singapore still ends up in the crossfire.

Major cloud service providers limit cloud services access to unaligned countries, presenting challenges to major enterprises operating in Singapore, including the government. The US introduces blanket visa restrictions on visitors from countries seen as "unaligned" in the decoupling effort. Singapore is reluctant to make any big moves given its neutrality, and Singaporeans living and working abroad worry about whether foreign and trade policy pivots could see them deported overnight.

It becomes difficult to keep up with the talent flows needed, as Chinese and Indians who used to find Singapore attractive are going to the US instead. Some companies seek workers from unconventional sources like Central Asia.

Procurement for major projects like smart cyber-physical systems see protracted delays due to decoupled supply chains. Singapore’s Smart City ambitions threaten to be set back as tech upgrades to Tampines and Punggol have been delayed for several years.

Domestically, Singaporeans are divided on the geopolitical situation; this causes new social rifts to form and Singapore begins to lose its foreigner-friendly reputation. In a shock move, a neighbouring government stops the flow of its workers to Singapore, on the grounds of protecting them from human trafficking. While authorities clarify the move amid public outcry, public speculation on the leanings of our regional neighbours following the announcement of big infrastructural investments from the US further stoke social divides.
There are unexpected impacts to Singapore society; precarity of employment, nationality-based tensions are some examples.

POLICY QUESTIONS

1. In the event of decoupling, what critical supply chain components and services would Singapore experience vulnerabilities in, and what is our resilience plan?

2. What might flows of people, capital and knowledge look like in Singapore as we continue to navigate a potential decoupling?

3. What are potential implications to social cohesion that could result from bifurcation, and how might we mitigate them?

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Liana Tang is Second Director of Smart Nation Strategy Office, Ministry of Communications and Information. Her current role covers Futures and Strategy in the digital domain: exploring emerging issues and plausible futures, and translating insights into strategy to inform and transform Singapore’s Smart Nation ambitions. A biologist by training, her academic and policy interests lie in the intersection of science, society and technology.

NOTES

1. Employment Trends During the COVID-19 Pandemic, Box Article 1.1, Economic Survey of Singapore Third Quarter 2021, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore.

2. Michelle Toh, “300 million jobs could be affected by latest wave of AI, says Goldman Sachs”, CNN, 29 March 2023.

3. The term "zero trust" is borrowed from the cybersecurity paradigm that assumes that an attacker is present in the computing environment. "Zero trust" in the info ecosystem assumes that all actors, information, networks etc in an information environment are hostile.

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